Research on Probability Distribution of Power Grid Chain Fault Scale Based on Historical Fault Record Data

Abstract

The probability distribution of the linkage fault scale describes the propagation characteristics of the grid linkage fault and is one of the effective methods to measure the probability of large-scale power failure. It is one of the traditional power system reliability evaluation methods to calculate the historical fault statistics. Combine it with the branch process model for interlocking fault analysis of regional power grids. Based on the 14-year historical failure data of a regional power grid, the probability distribution of the grid-scale fault scale is calculated by using the Pore-Thalian branch process model, and the error analysis is used to study the wave The Validity and Possibility of the Tyler Model Applied to the Practical Power Grid Risk Management. The results show that the Porell-Tyler model can well estimate the probability distribution of the line fault size. Under the same confidence requirement, the sample data needed to estimate the fault probability distribution based on the Pore-Than model is reduced by an order of magnitude than the sample data required to calculate the resulting probability distribution directly from the actual fault data.