Determinants of mode changes in times of COVID-19: A study of 11 main Latin American cities

Abstract

Although most activities have returned to business as usual after the critical phase of the COVID19 pandemic, there are long-lasting impacts, particularly on mobility. Based on a survey conducted in 11 major cities in Latin America between July and September 2022, we analysed which factors influence the modes people choose to travel to their primary activity at the time of the survey, compared to the mode they used before the pandemic. Through a hybrid model with two latent variables, associated with the risk of travelling by public transport and private modes, we identified that, in addition to the level of service of the alternatives represented by travel time coefficients, moving residential location and/or changing their main activity played a decisive role in mode changes. Higher crowding in public transport was associated with a higher probability of moving to other modes of transport. Our results also suggest that participants with high income were more likely to migrate to private modes, and women were more likely to move out of using public transport.