Greenhouse Gas Reductions Beyond Chile’s Nationally Determined Contribution to 2030: Preliminary Modelling Results

Abstract

The Climate Action Teams (CAT) initiative is a mechanism that supports international resource transfers for climate mitigation. CAT operates through government-to-government agreements based on verified mitigation outcomes beyond nationally determined contribution (NDC) commitments in one country (the host) in exchange for financial and technological support from one or more countries (the partners) that form part of the CAT. The mitigation outcomes are “credited” to the partner countries and can potentially contribute to their NDC commitments. A prospective emissions open-access model was developed by a modeling team from the Global Change Center of the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile to explore mitigation opportunities beyond Chile’s NDC. The results analyses to determine a more accurate estimate. Nevertheless, some of the results are of particular interest and the structure of the model can be used for some preliminary investigations. For example, in the Reference future scenario, 62 MtCO2e are estimated to be available beyond the budget commitment. Preliminary results from new runs based on different carbon prices suggest that 70% of the 62 MtCO2e could be obtained at a marginal cost of less than US$50/tCO2e. In addition, estimates of the capital cost required to achieve this 70% is about US$2.8 billion. represent a first approximation of the mitigation potential and its costs, since the implementation of any of the actions presented may require a whole set of