Is Depletion Likely to Create Significant Scarcities of Future Petroleum Resources? Roberto F. Aguilera, Roderick G. Eggert, C.C. Gustavo Lagos, and John E. Tilton

Abstract

Some energy analysts are concerned that the world will soon face a global crisis due to dwindling petroleum resources and a peak in oil production. To shed light on the subject, we have assessed the threat that depletionposes to the availability of petroleum resources by estimating cumulativeavailability curves for conventional petroleum (oil, gas, and natural gas liquids) and for three unconventional sources of liquids (heavy oil, oil sands, and oil shale). Our analysis extends the important study conductedby the US Geological Survey (World petroleum assessment. CD-ROM. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, 2000) on this topic by taking account of (1) conventional petroleum resources from provinces not assessed by theSurvey or other organizations, (2) future reserve growth, (3) unconventional sources of liquids, and (4) production costs.